It was already two years ago that we began to feel the effects of economic climate change.

And, just as with environmental climate change, a cycle seems to have emerged whereby we have all had to listen to the refuters, scratch our heads over the fact that our current models and forecasts no longer apply, and work extremely hard to respond to a dramatically changing environment.

Two years on, it is hard to find any corner of industry unaffected by this economic storm and still no clear evidence that we are really ‘out of the woods’.  Some green shoots, perhaps, but in truth, it seems, the new business horizon continues to be vague and everyone remains cautious.

International schools across the world have also been affected – in some areas more than others.  This is hardly rocket science, of course.  After all, if many of these schools continue to provide a service to globally mobile families on expatriate assignments, there is going to be a direct correlation between companies having to downsize in particular regions, on the one hand, and school enrolment in that region, on the other. 

Ironically, though, in many corners of the world the industry of international education has continued to flourish.  Even our own experience at the International School of Brussels (ISB) has, so far, been less impacting that we had first feared.

Make no mistake, the future still remains uncertain.  However, one of the lessons that we have begun to learn as an organization is the importance of data management.  Put simply, better management and analysis of data at ISB over the past 2 years has broadened our understanding of what is currently going on and, in the end we hope, enabled better decision-making on the part of the Board of Trustees and school management team.

Allow me to give an example.

International schools are notorious for their lack of institutional memory.  With 25-30% turnover in most schools every year, even amongst the Board of Trustees, it is often difficult to remember why decisions were taken or what happened as long as five years ago.  Faced with the threat of a downturn in enrolment, we therefore decided to take a 50-year perspective on school enrolment.  What this showed us was that enrolment had steadily increased over this time, but that there were a number of dips in this line graph that tended to last 2-3 years before new peaks were reached.  Critically, though, our moment of insight came when we began to see a direct correlation between these dips and major US or global recessions.  In short, every time there was a major economic recession, ISB experienced a downturn in enrolment that was staggered and lasted 2-3 years before steadily growing to a new ‘high’.

This simple but insightful piece of data subsequently became the foundation for our strategic plans moving forward.  The question, it seemed, was not if enrolment was going to be affected, but by how much.  A series of scenarios were then planned – from ‘business as usual’ (we ruled out the further growth scenario) to anything up to 30% drop in enrolment.

As a new school year opened that was only marginally short of ‘business as usual’, we began to look again at why we seemed to be bucking the trend of history.  Was it perhaps that the impact on our enrolment was still to come?  Was it that we had simply taken a larger share in a shrinking market?  We continue to think carefully about these questions.  However, as we dug deeper, we noticed two remarkable trends relating to the demographic make-up of our community that may well explain what was happening.

First, we continue to see a decline in the number of US families at ISB.  In 1999, US families comprised 42% of our community.  Today, whilst the US is our largest community and continues to be extremely well represented in all sections of the school, this percentage now stands at 20%.  And it is not at all the case that they are leaving ISB to another school.  Our colleagues in other international schools in Brussels are reporting as seeing the same kind of demographic shifts.

Second, we continue to see a rise in the number of local Belgian families joining ISB.  Five years ago, this figure was 5%.  Today, it is 13% - a 4 point rise even over the past 12 months.  And we are seeing the same increase amongst our French and Dutch communities – many of whom are choosing to relocate and live in Brussels for a variety of reasons, including the quality of the international schools in Belgium. 

So what does this all mean?  It appears that the traditional notion of ISB as a school for globally mobile families is changing.  Today, in other words, we are perhaps not just a ‘local school for global families’.  We have also become a ‘global school for local families’ - responding to the growing number of local parents who want to offer their children a different kind of education in a truly international environment.

Our inquiry into the role of data in schools has really only just begun at ISB and is taking us in a number of directions – from the development of a school-wide data dashboard to questions about the use and role of KPIs in a learning environment.  What is clear, though, is that the new economic reality that we now face is only going to drive us further in this direction in the future.  We cannot any longer be blown around by the winds of chance with our fingers crossed.